Signal dossier · Q4 2025

OXY

Occidental Petroleum · Energy

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

+33

7Q BUY

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

3 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 7+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+33

Buy component

+33

Dissent penalty

−0

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-9

Info density

+11

Buyers / Sellers

3 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+33

Smart money (13F)

+11

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−0

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 3·Buyers: 15·Sellers: 4·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +14.1% ±2.8%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling OXY each quarter — last 2 years.

9 buy moves·3 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on OXY for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Carl Icahn
Icahn Enterprises
3Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on OXY — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

15 buys · 4 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Continuing to build the Occidental stake.	Add 12.00%	+30.60M	5.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 46.00%	+834K	0.10%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial Aligning with Buffett on Occidental.	Add 15.00%	+510K	15.50%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises Continued Occidental trim.	Reduce 12.00%	-2.16M	4.20%

Q3 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Building the Occidental stake.	Add 8.00%	+18.90M	4.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 134%	+1.04M	0.10%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial Aligning with Buffett on Occidental.	Add 20.00%	+560K	13.50%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises Pullback from Occidental.	Reduce 15.00%	-2.70M	4.80%

Q2 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Q2 add to Occidental — the first of three consecutive quarters.	Add 5.00%	+11.40M	4.50%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises Starting the Occidental pullback.	Reduce 20.00%	-3.80M	5.60%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Early OXY build.	Add 4.00%	+8.70M	4.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 173%	+490K	0.00%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Slow OXY accumulation.	Add 4.00%	+8.90M	4.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 263%	+206K	0.00%

Q2 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway OXY add.	Add 3.00%	+7.80M	4.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 12.00%	+8K	0.00%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Buy (new)	+1.47M	3.60%
Carl IcahnElite Icahn Enterprises	Sell (exit)	-16.49M	0.00%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Small OXY add.	Add 2.00%	+4.30M	3.70%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

1 buy · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Vicki Hollub CEO First open-market buy in 18 months.	buy	25,000	$1.23M	Feb 4, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for OXY — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on OXY

Energy sector →→ Ranks #7 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in OXY as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Prem Watsa

13.5%

“Energy float compounder, aligned with Buffett.”

Warren BuffettT1

4.9%

“Building toward a potential majority stake.”

Carl Icahn

4.8%

“Activist position vs management — scaled back.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for OXY, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 3 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 3 institutional holdings and the +33 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.