Who actually beats the market?
10-year track record for 29 of the best portfolio managers in the world. Ranked by alpha — how much they beat the S&P 500 per year, after fees.
S&P 500 10-year CAGR (benchmark): 13.1%. Anything above that is positive alpha — the manager's skill, not the market's tide.
| # | Manager | 10y CAGR | Alpha▼ | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valley Forge Capital | 18.7% | +5.6% | 8.2 |
| 2 | TCI Fund Management | 18.6% | +5.5% | 8.2 |
| 3 | Fairfax Financial | 18.0% | +4.9% | 6.9 |
| 4 | Duquesne Family Office | 17.0% | +3.9% | 7.2 |
| 5 | Appaloosa Management | 16.2% | +3.1% | 7.6 |
| 6 | Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) | 14.9% | +1.8% | 4.8 |
| 7 | Pabrai Investment Funds | 14.6% | +1.5% | 5.4 |
| 8 | Akre Capital Management | 14.3% | +1.2% | 7.0 |
| 9 | Polen Capital Management | 14.3% | +1.2% | 5.6 |
| 10 | Fundsmith | 13.5% | +0.4% | 5.8 |
| 11 | Giverny Capital | 13.2% | +0.1% | 4.5 |
| 12 | Brave Warrior Advisors | 12.7% | -0.4% | 6.2 |
| 13 | Egerton Capital | 12.6% | -0.5% | 4.9 |
| 14 | Wedgewood Partners | 12.5% | -0.6% | 4.8 |
| 15 | Berkshire Hathaway | 11.7% | -1.4% | 5.9 |
| 16 | Scion Asset Management | 11.2% | -1.9% | 4.6 |
| 17 | Himalaya Capital | 11.1% | -2.0% | 4.5 |
| 18 | Pershing Square Capital | 11.0% | -2.1% | 5.1 |
| 19 | Oakmark Funds | 10.9% | -2.2% | 4.5 |
| 20 | Cantillon Capital Management | 10.7% | -2.4% | 3.8 |
| 21 | Viking Global Investors | 9.6% | -3.5% | 4.2 |
| 22 | Gotham Asset Management | 9.0% | -4.1% | 2.2 |
| 23 | Oaktree Capital | 9.0% | -4.2% | 3.7 |
| 24 | ValueAct Capital | 8.7% | -4.4% | 3.4 |
| 25 | Lone Pine Capital | 8.6% | -4.5% | 2.5 |
| 26 | Tiger Global Management | 8.4% | -4.7% | 3.3 |
| 27 | Baupost Group | 5.4% | -7.7% | 2.2 |
| 28 | Maverick Capital | 4.0% | -9.2% | 1.0 |
| 29 | Greenlight Capital | 3.3% | -9.8% | 0.1 |
Quality score formula
Each manager's quality score is computed from real 10-year returns, not reputation. Replaces the hand-curated tier system used in earlier HoldLens versions.
+ alpha10y × 0.20 // each 1% of alpha = +0.2
+ (winRate − 0.5) × 6 // 80% win rate = +1.8
+ cagr10y × 0.05 // each 1% CAGR = +0.05
− drawdown penalty // each 10% beyond -20% = -0.5
+ uncorrelated bonus // macro / distressed = +0.3
clamped 0 to 10
Annual returns are sourced from public fund reports (Berkshire, Pershing Square, Akre, Fundsmith, Polen, Oakmark, Wedgewood, Scottish Mortgage Trust, Greenlight) and reasonable estimates from press coverage for private funds (Druckenmiller, Tepper, TCI, Tiger Global, Viking, Lone Pine, Maverick, Egerton, Cantillon, Valley Forge, Himalaya, Baupost, Scion, Pabrai, Gotham, Brave Warrior, Giverny, ValueAct, Appaloosa, Fairfax). Used by the recommendation model to weight each manager's buy/sell signal — a Buffett or Druckenmiller move counts more than one from a less-proven manager. Not investment advice.