Conviction leaders · weighted by position size

Whose entire portfolio does smart money agree with?

30 managers ranked by the position-weighted average ConvictionScore of their top holdings. A high score means the unified −100..+100 smart-money model agrees with every one of their biggest bets, right now.

Forward-looking, not historical. Position-weighted so a +60 score on a 25% position counts more than +60 on a 2% position. “(Own)” holdings excluded.

Rank #1

Scion Asset Management

Pabrai Investment Funds

Full ranking · top 20

Position-weighted conviction

Each manager’s top holdings (excluding their own company) scored on the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScale, then weighted by position size and averaged.

#	Manager	Picks	Avg	Weighted avg	Best pick
1	Dev Kantesaria Valley Forge Capital	6	+18.2	+18	FICO +32
2	Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	5	+7.2	+11.7	BABA +33
3	Mohnish Pabrai Pabrai Investment Funds	5	+7.6	+11.6	BABA +33
4	Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office	5	+9.8	+10.7	COHR +24
5	Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	6	+6.7	+8.9	SCHW +26
6	Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	5	+8.8	+7.8	OXY +33
7	Chris Hohn TCI Fund Management	7	+3.4	+6.1	GE +41
8	Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors	6	+5.2	+5.2	NVDA +16
9	Chuck Akre Akre Capital Management	6	+1.7	+5.1	MA +13
10	David Einhorn Greenlight Capital	6	+0.3	+4.3	GRBK +12
11	Howard Marks Oaktree Capital	6	+2.7	+4	TRMD +15
12	William von Mueffling Cantillon Capital Management	6	+3.8	+3.9	MCO +9
13	Carl Icahn Icahn Enterprises	5	+3.6	+3.8	OXY +33
14	Terry Smith Fundsmith	6	+2.5	+3.4	MA +13
15	David Tepper Appaloosa Management	7	+3.6	+2.4	BABA +33
16	John Armitage Egerton Capital	6	+3	+1.7	SCHW +26
17	Li Lu Himalaya Capital	5	+3.6	+1.4	BABA +33
18	François Rochon Giverny Capital	6	+0.7	+1.3	MA +13
19	Polen Capital Polen Capital Management	6	+0.2	−0.2	MA +13
20	Bill Ackman Pershing Square Capital	8	−1	−0.4	BN +16

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How this is computed

Position-weighted average

weightedAvg = Σ(score × pct) / Σ(pct)

For each manager, every top-10 holding (excluding “(own)” companies like Icahn’s IEP) gets the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore. We then average those scores weighted by the size of each position in the portfolio. A 25%-of-portfolio +60 conviction beats a 2% +60 conviction.

This is a forward-looking signal, distinct from /leaderboard (historical 10y alpha) and /manager-rankings (skill × activity composite). Average across all 30 leaders: +2.4.

ConvictionScore methodology: methodology. Not investment advice. Updates with each new 13F filing cycle.