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Signal dossier · Q4 2025

MA logoMA

Mastercard · Financials

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale
BUY
+13
5Q BUY
on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY
3 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 5+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
+13
Buy component
+31
Dissent penalty
−18
Unanimity bonus
+10
Quality differential
-2
Info density
+11
Buyers / Sellers
3 / 2
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
+13
Smart money (13F)
+11
Insider activity (Form 4)
+0
Track record (CAGR)
+1
Trend streak
+10
Concentration
+9
Contrarian bonus
+0
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−18
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 6·Buyers: 16·Sellers: 18·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.7% ±2.4%·How this is computed
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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling MA each quarter — last 2 years.

8 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying
1
'24 Q1
'24 Q2
1
'24 Q3
2
'24 Q4
'25 Q1
'25 Q2
2
'25 Q3
2
'25 Q4
Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling
-2 owners over 8Q
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on MA for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on MA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
16 buys · 18 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: STRONG SELL
Q4 2025(5 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
17.80%
Giverny Capital
11.20%
Lone Pine Capital
0.40%
Polen Capital Management
5.20%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.70%
Q3 2025(4 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
17.40%
Giverny Capital
10.60%
Fundsmith
0.00%
Polen Capital Management
5.10%
Q2 2025(3 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.80%
Fundsmith
0.10%
Polen Capital Management
5.20%
Q1 2025(5 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.70%
Akre Capital Management
17.60%
Fundsmith
0.10%
Polen Capital Management
5.50%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.80%
Q4 2024(5 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
17.50%
Fundsmith
9.60%
Gotham Asset Management
0.70%
Polen Capital Management
5.00%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.70%
Q3 2024(6 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
17.00%
Giverny Capital
0.50%
Gotham Asset Management
0.80%
Brave Warrior Advisors
0.00%
Lone Pine Capital
0.00%
Polen Capital Management
4.90%
Q2 2024(5 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Lone Pine Capital
3.70%
Gotham Asset Management
0.70%
Akre Capital Management
15.70%
Viking Global Investors
0.00%
Brave Warrior Advisors
0.00%
Q1 2024(1 move)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Akre Capital Management
16.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)
0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders
Net: INSIDER SELLING
InsiderValue
Michael Miebach
CEO
$4.46M

Latest news

Recent headlines for MA — context for the moves above.

Each bar is one manager’s position size in MA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

17.8%
Largest position. Held since 2010. Core compounder.
Top conviction. 17-year hold.
Other payment network.
Payment network compounder.
Payment network.
The other payment network.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for MA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 6 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 6 institutional holdings and the +13 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.