Smart-money positioning · Q4 2025
What tracked superinvestors are buying and selling.
The stocks with the most aggregate BUY and SELL conviction across 30 tracked portfolio managers' latest 13F filings. Ranked by composite score across 6 signal layers.
This is a smart-money tracker. Backtest against forward returns shows no predictive signal — the score surfaces institutional consensus, not future alpha. Read the methodology →
HoldLens tracks institutional positioning — it's not a stock picker. Our 2026 backtest over 221 ticker-quarter pairs found the ConvictionScore has no predictive signal for forward returns (Pearson r = −0.12). The rankings show what the best portfolio managers were BUYING and SELLING at the latest 13F — useful as market intelligence, not as personal investment advice.
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Buy — top 10
All buy signals →1
GE
GE Aerospace
Industrials6Q BUY·9 buying · 4 selling · 1 total owner
+41
BUY
Expected return
+18.3%/yr
Confidence ±
4.5%
5-year projection
2.3×
Buyer alpha avg
18.6%
Hohn19% CAGRHohn19% CAGRHohn19% CAGR
2
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
Energy7Q BUY·15 buying · 4 selling · 3 total owners
+33
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+14.1%/yr
Confidence ±
2.8%
5-year projection
1.9×
Buyer alpha avg
15.9%
Watsa18% CAGRBuffett12% CAGRWatsa18% CAGR
3
BABA
Alibaba
Technology6Q BUY·23 buying · 16 selling · 4 total owners
+33
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+11.7%/yr
Confidence ±
3.3%
5-year projection
1.7×
Buyer alpha avg
15.6%
Tepper16% CAGRTepper16% CAGRCapital14% CAGR
4
FICO
Fair Isaac
Technology·8 buying · 4 selling · 2 total owners
+32
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+15.8%/yr
Confidence ±
3.3%
5-year projection
2.1×
Buyer alpha avg
15.8%
Akre14% CAGRKantesaria19% CAGRAkre14% CAGR
5
SCHW
Charles Schwab
Financials4Q BUY·15 buying · 8 selling · 2 total owners
+26
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+12.3%/yr
Confidence ±
1.7%
5-year projection
1.8×
Buyer alpha avg
12.7%
Armitage13% CAGRGreenberg13% CAGRGreenberg13% CAGR
6
HEI
HEICO Corp
Industrials·8 buying · 2 selling · 1 total owner
+25
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+14.8%/yr
Confidence ±
3.1%
5-year projection
2.0×
Buyer alpha avg
13.1%
Kantesaria19% CAGRGreenblatt9% CAGRBuffett12% CAGR
7
COHR
Coherent
Technology4Q BUY·7 buying · 7 selling · 1 total owner
+24
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+16.6%/yr
Confidence ±
3.6%
5-year projection
2.1×
Buyer alpha avg
17.0%
Druckenmiller17% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGR
8
MSCI
MSCI Inc
Financials·12 buying · 8 selling · 1 total owner
+22
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+15.7%/yr
Confidence ±
4.3%
5-year projection
2.1×
Buyer alpha avg
16.2%
Kantesaria19% CAGRSlater15% CAGRSlater15% CAGR
9
MU
Micron Technology
Technology2Q BUY·13 buying · 9 selling · 2 total owners
+20
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+14.8%/yr
Confidence ±
4.4%
5-year projection
2.0×
Buyer alpha avg
16.3%
Tepper16% CAGRPabrai15% CAGRWatsa18% CAGR
10
CB
Chubb
Financials4Q BUY·14 buying · 2 selling · 1 total owner
+20
WEAK BUY
Expected return
+11.2%/yr
Confidence ±
2.1%
5-year projection
1.7×
Buyer alpha avg
11.3%
Rolfe13% CAGRHalvorsen10% CAGRBuffett12% CAGR
Sell — top 10
All sell signals →1
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Technology6Q SELL·14 buying · 25 selling · 3 total owners
-29
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+10.7%/yr
Confidence ±
3.3%
5-year projection
1.7×
Buyer alpha avg
13.2%
Capital14% CAGRTepper16% CAGRGreenblatt9% CAGR
2
GOOGL
Alphabet
Technology·19 buying · 32 selling · 9 total owners
-22
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+12.6%/yr
Confidence ±
3%
5-year projection
1.8×
Buyer alpha avg
14.5%
Druckenmiller17% CAGRHalvorsen10% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGR
3
GOOG
Alphabet Class C
Technology2Q BUY·12 buying · 26 selling · 4 total owners
-13
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+8.7%/yr
Confidence ±
4.3%
5-year projection
1.5×
Buyer alpha avg
12.2%
Tepper16% CAGRSlater15% CAGRKlarman5% CAGR
4
AMZN
Amazon
Technology2Q BUY·23 buying · 37 selling · 3 total owners
-13
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+10%/yr
Confidence ±
3.4%
5-year projection
1.6×
Buyer alpha avg
13.0%
Rolfe13% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGRHalvorsen10% CAGR
5
COF
Capital One Financial
Financials·21 buying · 19 selling · 1 total owner
-13
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+9.6%/yr
Confidence ±
3.4%
5-year projection
1.6×
Buyer alpha avg
15.0%
Druckenmiller17% CAGRNygren11% CAGRDruckenmiller17% CAGR
6
INTC
INTC
·8 buying · 13 selling
-12
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+11%/yr
Confidence ±
3.7%
5-year projection
1.7×
Buyer alpha avg
12.0%
Tepper16% CAGRNygren11% CAGRGreenblatt9% CAGR
7
TSLA
Tesla
Consumer Discretionary·15 buying · 10 selling · 1 total owner
-12
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+9.1%/yr
Confidence ±
3.3%
5-year projection
1.6×
Buyer alpha avg
12.7%
Halvorsen10% CAGRCapital14% CAGRCapital14% CAGR
8
POOL
POOL
·8 buying · 10 selling
-12
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+11.7%/yr
Confidence ±
1.9%
5-year projection
1.7×
Buyer alpha avg
10.8%
Buffett12% CAGRGreenblatt9% CAGRBuffett12% CAGR
9
FE
FirstEnergy
Utilities·8 buying · 10 selling · 1 total owner
-11
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+9.8%/yr
Confidence ±
3.4%
5-year projection
1.6×
Buyer alpha avg
10.8%
Tepper16% CAGRNygren11% CAGRKlarman5% CAGR
10
VST
Vistra Corp
Utilities6Q BUY·24 buying · 25 selling · 2 total owners
-10
WEAK SELL
Expected return
+8.1%/yr
Confidence ±
3.7%
5-year projection
1.5×
Buyer alpha avg
13.4%
Druckenmiller17% CAGRMarks9% CAGRCapital14% CAGR
The model
Six signal layers, one number
ConvictionScore v3 combines smart-money consensus, insider activity, manager track-record-weighted expected return, multi-quarter trend streaks, position concentration, anti-crowding bonus (under-the-radar discovery), and dissent penalty. Time-decayed across 4 quarters of 13F data. Expected ROI projects forward using the buyers' realized 10-year CAGRs.
- • Smart money — manager quality × consensus, time-decayed
- • Insider boost — CEO/CFO open-market buys (the strongest single equity signal)
- • Track record — buyer 10y CAGR × position size
- • Trend streak — multi-quarter compounding
- • Concentration — 15% positions weighted heavier than 1%
- • Contrarian bonus — under-the-radar gems (anti-crowding)
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Expected ROI is the model's projection, not a guarantee. Not investment advice. Methodology.