Signal dossier · Q4 2025

VST

Vistra Corp · Utilities

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−10

6Q BUY

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

4 tracked managers selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−10

Buy component

+22

Dissent penalty

−32

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-10

Info density

+13

Buyers / Sellers

4 / 4

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−10

Smart money (13F)

+13

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-7

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−32

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 2·Buyers: 24·Sellers: 25·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +8.1% ±3.7%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling VST each quarter — last 2 years.

12 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on VST for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on VST — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

24 buys · 25 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: SELL

Q4 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Aggressive Vistra add — AI data center demand thesis.	Add 25.00%	+1.20M	11.40%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Adding to Vistra — power demand from AI.	Add 18.00%	+940K	12.80%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 11.00%	+513K	6.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 7.00%	+70K	2.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 24.00%	-300K	2.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-234K	0.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 28.00%	-52K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Sell (exit)	-3K	0.00%

Q3 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group AI data center thesis — big add.	Add 30.00%	+1.38M	9.60%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same data center thesis as Klarman.	Add 25.00%	+1.30M	11.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+234K	1.10%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 31.00%	-555K	3.30%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 27.00%	-1.77M	6.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 16.00%	-35K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 25.00%	-315K	2.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 54.00%	-3K	0.00%

Q2 2025(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group First of three consecutive quarters building Vistra.	Add 22.00%	+1.00M	7.20%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same Vistra thesis as Klarman — 3 Q build.	Add 18.00%	+850K	9.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 40.00%	+1.86M	8.90%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 47.00%	+400K	3.20%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+6K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 22.00%	-500K	5.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 14.00%	-36K	0.00%

Q1 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Klarman's first Vistra position — start of the 3 Q build.	Buy (new)	+4.20M	5.90%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Howard Marks's first Vistra position — same quarter as Klarman.	Buy (new)	+3.60M	7.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 17.00%	+38K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 15.00%	-400K	3.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-283K	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 14.00%	-748K	4.70%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-602K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 15.00%	-150K	1.50%

Q4 2024(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group Major Vistra add — start of the multi-quarter build.	Add 28.00%	+1.24M	5.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital Same Vistra thesis as Klarman — start of build.	Add 22.00%	+1.02M	6.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 113%	+1.43M	5.80%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 28.00%	-108K	1.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 21.00%	-1.45M	5.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 67.00%	-1.24M	0.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 61.00%	-344K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 69.00%	-2.17M	1.90%

Q3 2024(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Seth KlarmanTier 1 Baupost Group First Vistra position — start of multi-Q build.	Buy (new)	+4.40M	4.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital First Vistra — same quarter as Klarman.	Buy (new)	+3.80M	5.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Buy (new)	+1.27M	2.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+1.84M	0.80%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 85.00%	-2.23M	1.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 10.00%	-61K	0.10%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 29.00%	-1.29M	5.10%

Q2 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Buy (new)	+200K	0.30%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 7.00%	+425K	4.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 51.00%	-653K	0.10%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for VST — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on VST

Utilities sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in VST as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Howard MarksT1

11.2%

“Independent power producer, AI data center demand.”

Seth KlarmanT1

9.6%

“Independent power producer + AI/data center thesis.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for VST, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 2 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 2 institutional holdings and the -10 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.