Signal dossier · Q4 2025

TSLA

Tesla · Consumer Discretionary

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−12

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

1 tracked manager selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−12

Buy component

+-5

Dissent penalty

−8

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-5

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−12

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

-7

Track record (CAGR)

-7

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−8

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 15·Sellers: 10·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +9.1% ±3.3%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling TSLA each quarter — last 2 years.

0 buy moves·1 sell moves·net selling

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on TSLA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

15 buys · 10 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 6.00%	+90K	2.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 10.00%	+189K	0.50%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) Small Tesla trim — rebalancing.	Reduce 8.00%	-180K	6.80%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 46.00%	+509K	1.90%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+295K	0.50%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 28.00%	+2K	0.00%

Q2 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 214%	+750K	1.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 43.00%	+497K	0.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+7K	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-19K	0.00%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+350K	0.30%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 50.00%	-19K	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Sell (exit)	-500K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 76.00%	-5.66M	0.40%

Q4 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+38K	0.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 113%	+585K	0.60%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 25.00%	+100K	2.70%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-436K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 41.00%	-5.24M	2.30%

Q3 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+436K	0.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 34.00%	+130K	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+400K	1.40%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 11.00%	-1.63M	2.50%

Q2 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 29.00%	-156K	0.10%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 20.00%	-3.54M	2.20%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Robyn Denholm Chair Discretionary sale, no plan.	sell	100,000	$41.50M	Jan 8, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for TSLA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on TSLA

Consumer Discretionary sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in TSLA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Tom Slater

6.8%

“Early and long — AV optionality.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for TSLA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -12 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.