Signal dossier · Q4 2025

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill · Consumer Discretionary

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

2Q SELL

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

3 tracked managers buying MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

+17

Dissent penalty

−13

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-4

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

3 / 2

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-4

Trend streak

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−13

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 10·Sellers: 7·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +10.5% ±3.7%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling CMG each quarter — last 2 years.

1 buy moves·2 sell moves·net selling

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on CMG for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Bill Ackman
Pershing Square Capital
2Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on CMG — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

10 buys · 7 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Add 68.00%	+159K	0.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 342%	+8.80M	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+4.72M	2.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-6.64M	0.00%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Sell (exit)	-21.54M	0.00%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+233K	0.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 17.00%	+948K	0.70%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Small Chipotle trim after 2024 gains.	Reduce 6.00%	-1.80M	21.40%

Q2 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 67.00%	+1.03M	0.10%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+6.01M	1.00%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Reduce 13.00%	-3.11M	9.10%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 64.00%	+589K	0.10%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital	Reduce 14.00%	-4.16M	11.80%

Q3 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 60.00%	-1.36M	0.10%

Q2 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 6990%	+2.25M	0.20%
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital Small CMG trim after gains.	Reduce 4.00%	-1.00M	22.50%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill AckmanElite Pershing Square Capital More Chipotle.	Add 6.00%	+1.80M	23.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

1 buy · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Scott Boatwright CEO First buy as new CEO — vote of confidence.	buy	15,000	$900K	Jan 12, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for CMG — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on CMG

Consumer Discretionary sector →→ Ranks #39 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in CMG as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Bill Ackman

21.4%

“Top position. Quality compounder thesis.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for CMG, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the +4 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Consumer Discretionary

Top conviction in this sector

All Consumer Discretionary names →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.