Signal dossier · Q4 2025

BABA

Alibaba · Technology

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

+33

6Q BUY

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

5 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 6+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+33

Buy component

+50

Dissent penalty

−17

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-5

Info density

+22

Buyers / Sellers

5 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+33

Smart money (13F)

+22

Insider activity (Form 4)

+10

Track record (CAGR)

-2

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−17

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 4·Buyers: 23·Sellers: 16·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +11.7% ±3.3%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling BABA each quarter — last 2 years.

10 buy moves·2 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling

-2 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on BABA for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on BABA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

23 buys · 16 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Adding to China contrarian bet.	Add 30.00%	+520K	5.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 181%	+4K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+825K	1.70%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 99.00%	+369K	0.10%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Doubling down again on the Alibaba contrarian bet.	Add 30.00%	+60K	28.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Sell (exit)	-3K	0.00%

Q3 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management New Alibaba position — China contrarian.	Buy (new)	+1.70M	4.20%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Buy (new)	+2K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+3K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Buy (new)	+372K	0.00%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Doubled the Alibaba bet.	Add 40.00%	+55K	21.30%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Sell (exit)	-5.40M	0.00%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital Took some Alibaba profits.	Reduce 12.00%	-680K	9.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 7.00%	-98K	0.00%

Q2 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Buy (new)	+5.40M	0.10%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management First major BABA add — 3 Q consecutive.	Add 35.00%	+45K	15.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 23.00%	-2.16M	12.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 75.00%	-4.12M	0.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Sell (exit)	-2K	0.00%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 28.00%	+1.19M	0.20%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Buy (new)	+2K	0.00%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Burry re-entered BABA here.	Buy (new)	+100K	11.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 22.00%	-2.61M	14.60%

Q4 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management First BABA position.	Buy (new)	+1.50M	3.40%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management BABA contrarian build accelerating.	Add 30.00%	+42K	11.50%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Sell (exit)	-225K	0.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Sell (exit)	-6K	0.00%

Q3 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Add 83.00%	+102K	0.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Buy (new)	+6K	0.00%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Burry's BABA re-entry.	Buy (new)	+100K	8.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 32.00%	-2.06M	0.20%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	Sell (exit)	-293K	0.00%

Q2 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 8.00%	+455K	0.30%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	Buy (new)	+293K	1.90%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 7.00%	-750K	12.20%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Sell (exit)	-97	0.00%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management Briefly exited BABA before re-entering Q3.	Sell (exit)	-200K	—
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	Sell (exit)	-293K	0.00%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management First BABA contrarian position.	Buy (new)	+195K	6.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

1 buy · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Joe Tsai Chairman Major open-market buy. Strong insider signal.	buy	500,000	$43.50M	Dec 5, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for BABA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on BABA

Technology sector →→ Ranks #2 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in BABA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Michael Burry

21.3%

“China big tech contrarian bet.”

Mohnish Pabrai

18.4%

“China discount opportunity.”

Li Lu

9.7%

“China expertise advantage.”

David TepperT1

5.4%

“China tech contrarian bet.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for BABA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 4 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 4 institutional holdings and the +33 conviction score.

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Tickers owned by ≥2 of BABA's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.