Signal dossier · Q4 2025

NVDA

NVIDIA · Technology

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

+16

6Q BUY

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

4 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 6+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+16

Buy component

+39

Dissent penalty

−24

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

-1

Info density

+23

Buyers / Sellers

4 / 4

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+16

Smart money (13F)

+23

Insider activity (Form 4)

-4

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−24

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 8·Buyers: 37·Sellers: 15·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.3% ±3.8%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling NVDA each quarter — last 2 years.

16 buy moves·4 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth rising

+2 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

More superinvestors are holding this name than 8 quarters ago. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on NVDA for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Stanley Druckenmiller
Duquesne Family Office
T13Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on NVDA — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

37 buys · 15 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Doubling down on AI infrastructure.	Add 25.00%	+180K	10.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Still leaning into AI infrastructure.	Add 18.00%	+520K	6.20%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) AI infrastructure conviction.	Add 20.00%	+230K	9.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+3.95M	2.60%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Continuing to trim the NVDA home run. Taking profits.	Reduce 25.00%	-425K	8.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Taking some NVDA profits.	Reduce 10.00%	-380K	7.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 15.00%	-969K	4.20%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 12.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q3 2025(9 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Big NVDA add.	Add 35.00%	+225K	8.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Pre-trim NVDA build.	Add 15.00%	+440K	7.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) Building NVDA.	Add 25.00%	+280K	7.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 14.00%	+2.66M	2.60%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 36850%	+6.28M	3.80%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	Buy (new)	+1.00M	13.50%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First NVDA profit-take round.	Reduce 18.00%	-374K	11.40%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-3.68M	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 10.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q2 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 483%	+1.45M	4.30%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 7.00%	+742K	5.40%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 93.00%	+1.35M	5.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+17K	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 285%	+12K	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First NVDA trim of the cycle.	Reduce 12.00%	-275K	13.80%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 44.00%	-2.86M	1.70%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	Sell (exit)	-900K	0.00%

Q1 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Small NVDA add before the trim cycle began.	Add 5.00%	+120K	15.60%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 222%	+4.51M	2.30%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 13.00%	+1.28M	4.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+2.89M	2.10%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+1.45M	2.40%
Michael Burry Scion Asset Management	Buy (new)	+900K	49.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 56.00%	-380K	0.40%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 11.00%	-6.00M	4.50%

Q4 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Pre-trim NVDA accumulation.	Add 8.00%	+220K	14.60%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Loaded up on NVDA.	Add 30.00%	+200K	8.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Adding NVDA.	Add 18.00%	+510K	6.70%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 6.00%	+235	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 10.00%	-233K	0.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 17.00%	-10.61M	5.50%

Q3 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Pre-trim NVDA accumulation.	Add 12.00%	+290K	13.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management NVDA buildup.	Add 25.00%	+165K	7.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 64.00%	+881K	1.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Buy (new)	+4K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 23.00%	-18.56M	5.80%

Q2 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office NVDA buildup.	Add 22.00%	+480K	12.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management NVDA build.	Add 18.00%	+110K	5.80%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+1.38M	0.70%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 900%	+8.72M	5.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 820%	+13.86M	2.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 697%	+71.76M	7.90%

Q1 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office NVDA major add.	Add 30.00%	+540K	11.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management Tepper's first NVDA position.	Buy (new)	+730K	5.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 2 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Jensen Huang CEO & Founder 10b5-1 plan — first batch of 2026.	sell	240,000	$33.12M	Jan 15, 2026
Mark Stevens Director Year-end discretionary sale.	sell	60,000	$8.10M	Dec 20, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for NVDA — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on NVDA

Technology sector →→ Ranks #17 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in NVDA as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Stanley DruckenmillerT1

11.4%

“Top AI infrastructure pick. Sized aggressively.”

David TepperT1

10.2%

“Top position — AI infrastructure.”

Tom Slater

9.4%

“AI infrastructure core.”

Chase Coleman

7.1%

“AI compute toll booth.”

John ArmitageT1

6.4%

“AI compute leader.”

Andreas Halvorsen

6.2%

“AI compute leader.”

Stephen MandelT1

5.1%

“AI infrastructure.”

Lee Ainslie

3.1%

“AI infrastructure.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for NVDA, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 8 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 8 institutional holdings and the +16 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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Same owners hold these

Tickers owned by ≥2 of NVDA's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.