Signal dossier · Q4 2025

MSFT

Microsoft · Technology

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

5Q BUY

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

4 tracked managers buying with 4 on a 5+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

+43

Dissent penalty

−37

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

+24

Buyers / Sellers

4 / 6

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

+24

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−37

− Crowding penalty

−5

Owners: 12·Buyers: 40·Sellers: 33·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13.3% ±3.7%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling MSFT each quarter — last 2 years.

19 buy moves·2 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth rising

+2 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

More superinvestors are holding this name than 8 quarters ago. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on MSFT for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on MSFT — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

40 buys · 33 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Quality compounder top-up.	Add 5.00%	+450K	11.20%
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital Quality compounder add.	Add 12.00%	+140K	8.90%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 8.00%	+38K	3.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Tiger-style quality compounder add.	Add 22.00%	+340K	4.80%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Partial Microsoft trim.	Reduce 10.00%	-110K	8.20%
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management Small Microsoft trim.	Reduce 6.00%	-48K	7.80%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Reduce 16.00%	-1.07M	8.90%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 16.00%	-175K	6.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 22.00%	-1.11M	8.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 13.00%	-994	0.00%

Q3 2025(14 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Fundsmith MSFT add.	Add 8.00%	+600K	11.00%
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital Steady Microsoft build.	Add 8.00%	+85K	8.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital Maverick MSFT add.	Add 40.00%	+250K	3.80%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Adding Microsoft.	Add 30.00%	+700K	9.80%
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management Microsoft add before Q4 trim.	Add 8.00%	+62K	8.30%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+2.43M	3.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 37.00%	+1.67M	2.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 16.00%	+1K	0.00%
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Reduce 6.00%	-973K	18.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 7.00%	-38K	3.20%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 26.00%	-600	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-201K	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 35.00%	-646K	4.60%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-406K	8.40%

Q2 2025(9 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 16.00%	+316	0.00%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+201K	2.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Building Microsoft.	Add 15.00%	+220K	3.80%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 27.00%	+85K	2.60%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 78.00%	+3K	0.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 8.00%	-429K	10.70%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-515K	8.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 14.00%	-993K	2.20%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Reduce 59.00%	-750	0.00%

Q1 2025(11 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Add 24.00%	+3.31M	17.00%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners	Add 18.00%	+12K	7.30%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Add 20.00%	+321K	6.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 17.00%	+897K	8.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 8.00%	+325K	1.70%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 47.00%	-460K	2.30%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 16.00%	-367	0.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 13.00%	-817K	9.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 71.00%	-1.71M	0.80%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 47.00%	-285K	1.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-470K	7.00%

Q4 2024(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Adding Microsoft.	Add 14.00%	+160K	9.50%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Microsoft top-up.	Add 7.00%	+580K	11.00%
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Add 17.00%	+2.00M	15.80%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Buy (new)	+2K	0.00%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Adding Microsoft.	Add 35.00%	+820K	8.60%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors Microsoft add.	Add 18.00%	+260K	4.20%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 18.00%	+578	0.00%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Add 143%	+750	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 31.00%	-270K	3.40%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 9.00%	-602K	7.30%

Q3 2024(11 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Microsoft add.	Add 18.00%	+175K	8.30%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Microsoft top-up.	Add 6.00%	+500K	10.50%
Chris HohnTier 1 TCI Fund Management	Add 14.00%	+1.46M	13.40%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management Microsoft add.	Add 25.00%	+580K	6.80%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 46.00%	+2.22M	2.30%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 50.00%	+1K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 18.00%	-211K	6.20%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 18.00%	-364K	5.30%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 11.00%	-248K	3.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 45.00%	-710K	5.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 22.00%	-1.97M	7.80%

Q2 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Microsoft add.	Add 15.00%	+130K	7.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 44.00%	+695K	3.90%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 24.00%	-369K	8.60%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Reduce 6.00%	-477K	13.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 10.00%	-185K	8.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-680K	10.10%

Q1 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First Microsoft position.	Buy (new)	+720K	6.00%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith Microsoft add.	Add 5.00%	+410K	10.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 1 sell from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Satya Nadella CEO & Chairman 10b5-1 quarterly plan.	sell	78,000	$33.15M	Nov 5, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for MSFT — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on MSFT

Technology sector →→ Ranks #66 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in MSFT as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Chris HohnT1

13.1%

“Core AI infrastructure holding.”

Terry SmithT1

11.2%

“Top position. Held since 2011.”

Chase Coleman

10.7%

“AI infrastructure leader.”

Polen Capital

9.4%

“Core compounder. Decade-long hold.”

Stanley DruckenmillerT1

9.1%

“Other half of the AI infrastructure trade.”

John ArmitageT1

8.9%

“Core quality compounder.”

Stephen MandelT1

7.8%

“Quality compounder since 2014.”

William von Mueffling

7.8%

“Core compounder.”

David TepperT1

5.9%

“Core AI infrastructure holding.”

Andreas Halvorsen

4.8%

“Quality AI infrastructure play.”

Joel Greenblatt

4.1%

“Quality compounder. Magic Formula stalwart.”

Lee Ainslie

3.8%

“Long-held compounder.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for MSFT, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 12 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 12 institutional holdings and the +2 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Technology

Top conviction in this sector

All Technology names →

Same owners hold these

Tickers owned by ≥2 of MSFT's holders

Full overlap matrix →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.