Signal dossier · Q4 2025

COF

Capital One Financial · Financials

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−13

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

4 tracked managers selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−13

Buy component

+11

Dissent penalty

−24

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-1

Info density

+12

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 4

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−13

Smart money (13F)

+12

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-5

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−24

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 21·Sellers: 19·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +9.6% ±3.4%·How this is computed

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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

-1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on COF — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

21 buys · 19 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 65.00%	+1.32M	0.40%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Add 20.00%	+1.80M	3.30%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-44K	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 11.00%	-275K	4.10%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 60.00%	-4.44M	1.90%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 21.00%	-285K	3.70%

Q3 2025(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+44K	0.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 30.00%	+1.72M	4.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 35.00%	+529K	0.30%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 11.00%	-999	0.10%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 17.00%	-511K	4.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 23.00%	-419K	3.30%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 10.00%	-1.04M	3.10%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Reduce 47.00%	-868K	4.80%

Q2 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 24.00%	+1.08M	3.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 41.00%	+437K	0.30%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 72.00%	+754K	5.00%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Add 190%	+1.20M	8.90%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 24.00%	-3K	0.10%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-198K	0.00%

Q1 2025(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+198K	1.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+4.59M	2.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 18.00%	+162K	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 14.00%	+125K	2.90%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Add 42004%	+630K	2.60%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 17.00%	-3K	0.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 17.00%	-2.01M	3.00%

Q4 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Buy (new)	+3.24M	4.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 36.00%	+244K	0.20%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+925K	2.20%
Glenn Greenberg Brave Warrior Advisors	Buy (new)	+2K	0.00%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Reduce 18.00%	-1.65M	0.50%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 18.00%	-2.59M	2.80%

Q3 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Buy (new)	+15K	0.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 38.00%	+185K	0.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Reduce 7.00%	-719K	0.50%

Q2 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 39.00%	+135K	0.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Reduce 21.00%	-2.65M	0.50%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-108K	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 6.00%	-906K	3.60%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for COF — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on COF

Financials sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in COF as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Bill Nygren

5.2%

“17-year holding. Best-in-class credit underwriting.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for COF, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -13 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.