Signal dossier · Q4 2025

AAPL

Apple Inc. · Technology

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−29

6Q SELL

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

5 tracked managers selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−29

Buy component

Dissent penalty

−30

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-9

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 5

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−29

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

-3

Track record (CAGR)

-4

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−30

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 3·Buyers: 14·Sellers: 25·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +10.7% ±3.3%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling AAPL each quarter — last 2 years.

0 buy moves·7 sell moves·net selling

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling

-3 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on AAPL for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter SELLERS

Warren Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway
T16Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on AAPL — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

14 buys · 25 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG SELL

Q4 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 16.00%	+1.68M	1.80%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Small continued trim. Stabilizing.	Reduce 3.00%	-9.00M	21.80%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners Small 19-year Apple trim.	Reduce 5.00%	-30K	10.20%
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital	Sell (exit)	-1K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 50.00%	-8K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 7.00%	-48K	0.20%

Q3 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 6.00%	+620K	1.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 80.00%	+7K	0.00%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Small Apple trim.	Reduce 5.00%	-15.00M	22.40%

Q2 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 81.00%	+8K	0.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Reduce 7.00%	-20.00M	22.30%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Sell (exit)	-1.25M	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 100%	-2.67M	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 8.00%	-64K	0.10%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Buy (new)	+1.25M	3.30%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 45.00%	-8K	0.10%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Reduce 65.00%	-207K	1.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 57.00%	-3.49M	1.90%

Q4 2024(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 72.00%	+7K	0.20%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 27.00%	+2.22M	3.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 10.00%	+75K	0.20%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Continued trimming AAPL.	Reduce 7.00%	-22.50M	23.40%
Terry SmithTier 1 Fundsmith	Sell (exit)	-1.56M	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-4.86M	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Sell (exit)	-930K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 8.00%	-567K	4.20%

Q3 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 6.00%	+268K	4.10%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+6.74M	4.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway Continued AAPL reduction.	Reduce 25.00%	-100.00M	25.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-24K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 52.00%	-1.02M	2.90%
Li LuElite Himalaya Capital	Reduce 58.00%	-442K	3.00%

Q2 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
John ArmitageTier 1 Egerton Capital	Buy (new)	+1K	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 19.00%	+720K	3.70%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Buy (new)	+1.95M	4.70%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 14.00%	+88K	0.10%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway The famous massive AAPL trim — half the position cut.	Reduce 49.00%	-390.00M	30.50%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 79.00%	-90K	0.20%

Q1 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway First major AAPL trim.	Reduce 13.00%	-116.00M	40.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

0 buys · 2 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER SELLING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
Tim Cook CEO Annual 10b5-1 vesting.	sell	200,000	$49.60M	Dec 10, 2025
Luca Maestri Former CFO Post-CFO transition liquidation.	sell	18,000	$4.23M	Nov 3, 2025

Latest news

Recent headlines for AAPL — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on AAPL

Technology sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in AAPL as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Warren BuffettT1

22.4%

“The consumer brand Buffett called 'probably the best business I know in the world'.”

David RolfeT1

10.2%

“Top position — 19-year hold.”

Joel Greenblatt

3.8%

“High ROIC, reasonable multiple.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for AAPL, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 3 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 3 institutional holdings and the -29 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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All Technology names →

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.