Signal dossier · Q4 2025

GRBK

Green Brick Partners · Real Estate

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

+12

3Q BUY

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

2 tracked managers buying with 1 on a 3+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

+12

Buy component

+13

Dissent penalty

−0

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 0

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

+12

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-10

Trend streak

Concentration

+10

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−0

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 2·Buyers: 7·Sellers: 5·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +3.6% ±3.9%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling GRBK each quarter — last 2 years.

3 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on GRBK for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

David Einhorn
Greenlight Capital
3Q

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on GRBK — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

7 buys · 5 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+7K	0.00%
David Einhorn Greenlight Capital Top conviction: more Green Brick.	Add 4.00%	+640K	29.40%

Q3 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 12.00%	+3K	0.00%
David Einhorn Greenlight Capital Top conviction add — homebuilder.	Add 5.00%	+800K	28.70%

Q2 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 20.00%	+4K	0.00%
David Einhorn Greenlight Capital Holding conviction.	Add 3.00%	+420K	27.40%

Q1 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 91.00%	+10K	0.00%

Q4 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 16.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q3 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 16.00%	-2K	0.00%

Q2 2024(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 79.00%	-55K	0.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for GRBK — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on GRBK

Real Estate sector →→ Ranks #8 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in GRBK as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

David Einhorn

28.7%

“Top conviction homebuilder. Held for a decade.”

Howard MarksT1

9.4%

“Homebuilder with strong land bank.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for GRBK, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 2 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 2 institutional holdings and the +12 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.