Signal dossier · Q4 2025

AXP

American Express · Financials

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−9

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

1 tracked manager selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−9

Buy component

+-6

Dissent penalty

−4

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

0 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−9

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-6

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−4

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 4·Sellers: 5·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +9% ±0%·How this is computed

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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+0 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on AXP — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

4 buys · 5 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: SELL

Q4 2025(1 move)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 10.00%	-24K	0.10%

Q1 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 41.00%	+95K	0.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 9.00%	-27K	0.10%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 26.00%	+49K	0.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 17.00%	-60K	0.10%

Q3 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 69.00%	+76K	0.10%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 62.00%	-582K	0.10%

Q2 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 31.00%	+26K	0.00%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Reduce 77.00%	-3.05M	0.40%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for AXP — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on AXP

Financials sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in AXP as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Warren BuffettT1

16.8%

“50-year holding — fee-based moat, premium customer base.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for AXP, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -9 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.