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Signal dossier · Q4 2025

CP logoCP

Canadian Pacific Kansas City · Industrials

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale
SELL
−10
on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL
1 tracked manager selling. MODERATE sell signal.
Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100
Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding
−10
Buy component
+-1
Dissent penalty
−9
Unanimity bonus
0
Quality differential
-8
Info density
+2
Buyers / Sellers
1 / 1
ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown
13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.
−10
Smart money (13F)
+2
Insider activity (Form 4)
+0
Track record (CAGR)
-4
Trend streak
+0
Concentration
+1
Contrarian bonus
+0
Event signal (8-K)
+0
− Dissent penalty
−9
− Crowding penalty
−0
Owners: 2·Buyers: 4·Sellers: 7·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +10.1% ±0.8%·How this is computed
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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat
-1 owners over 8Q
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Q1 '24
Q2 '24
Q3 '24
Q4 '24
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on CP — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity
4 buys · 7 sells across tracked 13F filings
Net signal: STRONG SELL
Q4 2025(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.00%
Q3 2025(3 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Gotham Asset Management
0.00%
TCI Fund Management
7.90%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.00%
Q2 2025(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Cantillon Capital Management
2.00%
Pershing Square Capital
0.00%
Q3 2024(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Cantillon Capital Management
2.10%
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.10%
Q2 2024(2 moves)
Portfolio manager% portfolio
Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)
0.10%
Fairfax Financial
0.00%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for CP — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on CP

Each bar is one manager’s position size in CP as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Rail + freight moat.
Rail + freight — wide moat.

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for CP, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis
Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 2 institutional filers
Powered by Claude Haiku

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 2 institutional holdings and the -10 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings
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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.