Signal dossier · Q4 2025

ICE

Intercontinental Exchange · Financials

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

NEUTRAL

on a signed +100 buy scale · NEUTRAL

Mixed or absent signals. Smart money is not decisively moving.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

Dissent penalty

−4

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

3 / 0

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-7

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−4

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 12·Sellers: 5·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +8.8% ±2%·How this is computed

Share this signal

8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling ICE each quarter — last 2 years.

1 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

-1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on ICE — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

12 buys · 5 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
William von MuefflingElite Cantillon Capital Management Building ICE.	Add 15.00%	+52K	5.80%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+4.80M	2.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 34.00%	+220K	0.10%

Q3 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 64.00%	+254K	0.10%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Sell (exit)	-950K	0.00%

Q2 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 58.00%	+145K	0.10%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-3.20M	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 14.00%	-150K	2.30%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 16.00%	+433K	1.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 31.00%	+59K	0.00%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Sell (exit)	-17K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 47.00%	-985K	2.90%

Q4 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+2.77M	1.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 57.00%	+69K	0.00%

Q3 2024(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Buy (new)	+17K	0.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 11.00%	+12K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 109%	+1.08M	4.50%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for ICE — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on ICE

Financials sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in ICE as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

William von Mueffling

5.8%

“Exchange + data compounder.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for ICE, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of NEUTRAL positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the 0 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

Same sector · Financials

Top conviction in this sector

All Financials names →

HoldLens Pro · Founders pricing

Email alerts + conviction scores + alpha attribution

€9/mo founders · cancel anytime

See pricing →

Share the ICE signal

Post LinkedIn Reddit Facebook

The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.