Signal dossier · Q4 2025

LLY

Eli Lilly · Other

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−10

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

1 tracked manager selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−10

Buy component

Dissent penalty

−17

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-10

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

1 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−10

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

-2

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−17

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 15·Sellers: 13·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +11.6% ±3.3%·How this is computed

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Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth falling

-3 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

Fewer superinvestors hold this name than 8 quarters ago — rotation out. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on LLY — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

15 buys · 13 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG BUY

Q4 2025(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 12.00%	+56K	0.30%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 23.00%	-377K	5.70%

Q3 2025(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 30.00%	+104K	0.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-101K	0.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-417K	0.00%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Sell (exit)	-1.51M	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 7.00%	-115K	4.00%

Q2 2025(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Add 6.00%	+6K	1.90%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+417K	0.90%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 13.00%	+176K	3.50%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Buy (new)	+414	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Sell (exit)	-552K	0.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 39.00%	-221K	0.20%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Add 52.00%	+33K	2.60%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 35.00%	+459K	4.60%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 30.00%	-231K	3.90%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 12.00%	-76K	0.50%

Q4 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Buy (new)	+62K	1.30%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Buy (new)	+783K	4.50%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 35.00%	+340K	3.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 164%	+805K	2.70%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Sell (exit)	-152K	0.00%

Q3 2024(2 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 43.00%	+203K	0.80%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 10.00%	-57K	1.10%

Q2 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 7.00%	+10K	0.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 17.00%	+70K	0.70%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Sell (exit)	-62K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 6.00%	-38K	1.20%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Insider activity (Form 4)

7 buys · 0 sells from corporate insiders

Net: INSIDER BUYING

Insider	Action	Shares	Value	Date
LUCIANO JUAN R Director	buy	17.303	$16K	Apr 20, 2026
Fyrwald J Erik Director	buy	10.78	$10K	Apr 20, 2026
Sulzberger Gabrielle Director	buy	5.39	$5K	Apr 20, 2026
LUCIANO JUAN R Director	buy	17.303	$16K	Apr 20, 2026
Fyrwald J Erik Director	buy	10.78	$10K	Apr 20, 2026
Alvarez Ralph Director	buy	13.498	$12K	Apr 20, 2026
Alvarez Ralph Director	buy	13.498	$12K	Apr 20, 2026

Latest news

Recent headlines for LLY — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on LLY

Other sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in LLY as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Terry SmithT1

5.9%

“Weight loss leader + immunology pipeline.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for LLY, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -10 conviction score.

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.