Signal dossier · Q4 2025

SHOP

Shopify · Technology

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

SELL

−4

on a signed −100 sell scale · WEAK SELL

1 tracked manager selling. MODERATE sell signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

−4

Buy component

Dissent penalty

−13

Unanimity bonus

Quality differential

-6

Info density

Buyers / Sellers

2 / 1

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

−4

Smart money (13F)

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−13

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 1·Buyers: 14·Sellers: 14·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +12.7% ±2.7%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling SHOP each quarter — last 2 years.

1 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

-1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on SHOP — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

14 buys · 14 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: NEUTRAL

Q4 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth) Adding Shopify.	Add 15.00%	+460K	4.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 392%	+184K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 35.00%	-3.86M	4.90%

Q3 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 84.00%	+21K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 25.00%	-3.63M	5.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 6.00%	-2.30M	3.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 11.00%	-287	0.00%

Q2 2025(3 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 75.00%	+11K	0.00%
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Sell (exit)	-5.60M	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 32.00%	-18.13M	3.30%

Q1 2025(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Howard MarksTier 1 Oaktree Capital	Buy (new)	+5.60M	0.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 107%	+8K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 11.00%	-1.81M	4.60%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 7.00%	-3.90M	4.70%

Q4 2024(4 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 66.00%	+3K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Buy (new)	+3K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Reduce 10.00%	-1.89M	4.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 6.00%	-3.59M	4.90%

Q3 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 19.00%	+685	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 29.00%	+4.25M	3.90%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 15.00%	+8.13M	3.80%
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Sell (exit)	-132.88M	0.00%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Sell (exit)	-3.87M	0.00%

Q2 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Warren BuffettTier 1 Berkshire Hathaway	Add 262%	+96.20M	0.10%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 15.00%	+491K	0.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 1672%	+13.89M	2.40%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 7.00%	-256	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 10.00%	-6.15M	2.90%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for SHOP — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on SHOP

Technology sector →

Each bar is one manager’s position size in SHOP as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

Tom Slater

4.7%

“Commerce platform.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for SHOP, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of SELL positioning from 1 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 1 institutional holdings and the -4 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.