Signal dossier · Q4 2025

TSM

Taiwan Semi · Technology

HoldLens verdict · single −100..+100 scale

BUY

4Q BUY

on a signed +100 buy scale · WEAK BUY

4 tracked managers buying with 2 on a 4+ quarter streak. MODERATE signal.

Unified ConvictionScore · −100..+100

Smart money + insider + track record + trend + concentration + contrarian − dissent − crowding

Buy component

+36

Dissent penalty

−28

Unanimity bonus

+10

Quality differential

Info density

+21

Buyers / Sellers

4 / 6

ConvictionScore v5 · 9-layer breakdown

13F superinvestor moves + Form 4 insider trades + 8-K material events. The SEC Signals trilogy.

Smart money (13F)

+21

Insider activity (Form 4)

Track record (CAGR)

Trend streak

+10

Concentration

Contrarian bonus

Event signal (8-K)

− Dissent penalty

−28

− Crowding penalty

−0

Owners: 2·Buyers: 26·Sellers: 30·Buyer-CAGR-weighted expected return: +13% ±3.7%·How this is computed

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8-quarter activity

Distinct managers buying or selling TSM each quarter — last 2 years.

6 buy moves·0 sell moves·net buying

'24 Q1

'24 Q2

'24 Q3

'24 Q4

'25 Q1

'25 Q2

'25 Q3

'25 Q4

Buyers (new + add)Sellers (trim + exit)

Ownership breadth · 8 quarters

Breadth flat

+1 owners over 8Q

Q1 '24

Q2 '24

Q3 '24

Q4 '24

Q1 '25

Q2 '25

Q3 '25

Q4 '25

The number of superinvestors holding this name has been stable for 8 quarters. See the most-owned names across all tracked managers →

Multi-quarter conviction

Managers who have been moving the same direction on TSM for 2+ consecutive quarters. Streaks matter far more than single-quarter moves — they reveal thesis conviction, not reactive trading.

Consecutive-quarter BUYERS

Smart money activity

Every tracked 13F move on TSM — grouped by quarter, ranked by manager quality.

Smart money activity

26 buys · 30 sells across tracked 13F filings

Net signal: STRONG SELL

Q4 2025(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners Building Taiwan Semi — AI picks and shovels.	Add 18.00%	+50K	9.10%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 7.00%	+70K	5.00%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 25.00%	+971K	4.00%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Add 13.00%	+24K	0.30%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 96.00%	-443K	0.20%
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Reduce 29.00%	-222K	3.70%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Reduce 19.00%	-853K	3.80%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 61.00%	-675K	1.80%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 15.00%	-228K	0.30%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Sell (exit)	-1K	0.00%

Q3 2025(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office More Taiwan Semi — AI picks and shovels.	Add 15.00%	+60K	5.20%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners Building TSM position.	Add 22.00%	+55K	7.70%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 3871%	+447K	3.90%
Polen CapitalElite Polen Capital Management	Buy (new)	+177K	0.20%
Bill Nygren Oakmark Funds	Buy (new)	+1K	0.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 11.00%	-384K	6.20%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 9.00%	-385K	2.90%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 13.00%	-14K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 23.00%	-330K	3.40%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 31.00%	-701K	0.30%

Q2 2025(10 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office Building Taiwan Semi.	Add 10.00%	+40K	4.50%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 280%	+755K	3.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 8.00%	+337K	3.00%
David RolfeTier 1 Wedgewood Partners	Reduce 17.00%	-39K	9.50%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 11.00%	-429K	5.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Reduce 11.00%	-560K	2.80%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 57.00%	-145K	0.00%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 20.00%	-350K	4.30%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 9.00%	-230K	0.40%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	Reduce 34.00%	-48K	1.20%

Q1 2025(7 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office New TSM position.	Buy (new)	+310K	4.10%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Add 8.00%	+20K	0.50%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Add 20.00%	+800K	2.60%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 17.00%	+606K	2.60%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 97.00%	+125K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Add 28.00%	+550K	0.40%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Reduce 21.00%	-3K	0.10%

Q4 2024(6 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office	Add 87.00%	+50K	0.60%
Andreas HalvorsenElite Viking Global Investors	Buy (new)	+4.09M	2.60%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 37.00%	-150K	0.80%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 11.00%	-452K	5.50%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 7.00%	-10K	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 9.00%	-184K	0.30%

Q3 2024(8 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Stanley DruckenmillerTier 1 Duquesne Family Office First TSM position.	Buy (new)	+280K	4.00%
François RochonTier 1 Giverny Capital	Add 78.00%	+6K	0.10%
Chase ColemanElite Tiger Global Management	Add 18.00%	+564K	2.70%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Add 27.00%	+30K	0.00%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 13.00%	-60K	1.00%
Stephen MandelTier 1 Lone Pine Capital	Reduce 30.00%	-1.79M	5.50%
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Reduce 12.00%	-245K	4.20%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 59.00%	-3.12M	0.30%

Q2 2024(5 moves)

Portfolio manager	Activity	Share change	% portfolio
Lee AinslieElite Maverick Capital	Add 72.00%	+850K	4.00%
Prem Watsa Fairfax Financial	Add 51.00%	+48K	2.20%
David TepperTier 1 Appaloosa Management	Reduce 8.00%	-40K	1.30%
Joel GreenblattElite Gotham Asset Management	Reduce 93.00%	-1.41M	0.00%
Tom SlaterElite Baillie Gifford (Long Term Global Growth)	Reduce 18.00%	-1.11M	0.70%

Insider activity

What the company's own executives and directors are doing — buys are highly bullish.

Latest news

Recent headlines for TSM — context for the moves above.

Who’s betting biggest on TSM

Technology sector →→ Ranks #47 of 83 tracked bets

Each bar is one manager’s position size in TSM as a % of their portfolio. Longer bar = bigger conviction bet. T1 badge marks the highest-quality track records.

David RolfeT1

9.1%

“AI picks and shovels.”

Stanley DruckenmillerT1

5.2%

“The picks-and-shovels AI play.”

AI thesis

An AI-synthesised investment thesis for TSM, based on the 13F data above. Generated on demand — not stored or pre-computed.

AI thesis

Claude Haiku synthesis of BUY positioning from 2 institutional filers

Generate a 2-paragraph investment thesis synthesising 2 institutional holdings and the +7 conviction score.

Related smart-money signals

Derived from the same 13F filings

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The HoldLens signal dossier shows the unified −100..+100 ConvictionScore alongside live prices, multi-quarter trend detection, insider activity, and real-time news. Not investment advice. Methodology.